Modelling Diabetes: A multi-state life table model

Modelling Diabetes: A multi-state life table model
Public Health Intelligence Occasional Bulletin No 9

Date of publication: March 2002

New Zealand is currently experiencing a ‘diabesity’ epidemic – an epidemic of obesity closely shadowed by a consequential epidemic of type 2 diabetes. These epidemics are already impacting severely on the health of New Zealanders and are contributing to the alarming health inequality between the major ethnic groups. This has been recognised by the inclusion of both diabetes and obesity, as well as nutrition and physical activity, as priority health objectives within the New Zealand Health Strategy, launched by the Minister of Health on 14 December 2000.

Improving population health and reducing inequalities in health between ethnic groups will require greater effort to prevent diabetes and to provide effective care for people with diabetes, in order to delay the onset or progression of micro- and macrovascular complications. Such efforts need to be guided by analyses of the current and future burden of this disease.

Another publication in the ‘Occasional Bulletin’ series, Modelling Diabetes: The mortality burden, provides estimates of the current burden imposed on society by this disease with particular reference to its contribution to premature mortality. This work has now been extended through the construction of a multi-state life table model which yields estimates of diabetes incidence in addition to mortality and prevalence.

Estimates of incidence are needed to plan diabetes services and allocate resources. The model also provides the necessary foundation for preparing forecasts of future diabetes burden under different policy options. Such forecasts are reported in another bulletin in this series, Modelling Diabetes: Forecasts to 2011. The model is also available to researchers, policy advisors, community groups, funders and providers to investigate scenarios of interest.

Comments on this report are welcomed, and should be sent to:

Public Health Intelligence,
Ministry of Health,
PO Box 5013,
Wellington
or email martin_tobias@moh.govt.nz.

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