Cancer Incidence Projections: 1999

Cancer Incidence Projections: 1999–2003 update
Public Health Occassional Bulletin No. 36

Date of publication: May 2007

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Summary

This report updates the cancer incidence projections made by Public Health Intelligence (PHI) in 2001, using newly available data for the 1999-2003 period. The projection method has not been changed, allowing the updated projections to be compared with the original ones. The (original) projection for 1999-2003 was also compared to what actually occurred.

Cancer mortality projections will be updated when the next five years’ mortality data becomes available (expected in 2007).

Projection versus observation for 1999-2003:

The projected incidence for 1999-2003 was close to that subsequently observed, with a tendency for the projections to be slightly too high (especially for males), although this varied across sites. The projection was, however, substantively too low for Hodgkins Disease (both sexes).

Original versus updated projections:

The updated projections do not differ much from the original projections, being in general slightly lower. The major differences are for bladder cancer, NHL (nonHodgkins lymphoma) and ‘All Other Sites’ (projection revised downwards) and for Hodgkins Disease (projection revised upwards).

The updated projections:

Overall, the risk of cancer is projected to stabilise over the coming decade, which means that the burden will increase by about 29% as a result of demographic trends (increasing size and older age structure of the New Zealand population). Substantial decreases in risk and burden are projected for tobacco-related cancers among males and for cervical cancer among females. Substantial increases in risk and/or count (burden) are projected for Hodgkins and nonHodgkins lymphoma, leukemia, kidney, liver and thyroid cancers in both sexes; myeloma and prostate cancers among males; and breast cancer among females.

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This publication is available in Word and PDF format below:

Cancer Incidence Projections: 1999–2003 update (Word, 3 MB)
Cancer Incidence Projections: 1999–2003 update (PDF, 1 MB)

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ISBN 978-0-478-19111-0 (online)

HP 4391

Citation: Ministry of Health. 2007. Cancer Incidence Projections: 1999–2003 update. Wellington: Ministry of Health.

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