Cancer Mortality Projections: 2000-2004 UpdatePublic Health Intelligence Occasional Bulletin No 49
Date of publication online: June 2008
Summary of publication
This report updates the cancer mortality projections produced by Public Health Intelligence in 2001, using newly available data for the 2000 to 2004 period.
Such projections are required for planning and resourcing cancer prevention, treatment and rehabilitation services.
Overall, the risk of dying from cancer is projected to decline over the decade from 2000-04 to 2010-14, by about 15%. Nevertheless, the burden of cancer mortality will still increase, by about 12%, as a result of demographic trends - in particular, the ageing of the population.
Mortality rates are projected to fall for almost all cancers in most age groups for both sexes. This includes colorectal cancer (both sexes), lung cancer (males), melanoma (females), and both breast and cervical cancer. Prostate cancer mortality rates are projected to stabilise.
Some of this improvement reflects incidence reduction (see companion report on cancer incidence projections), resulting from lifestyle change (especially declining tobacco consumption) and screening. The remainder reflects case fatality reduction, ie improvements in survival resulting from earlier detection and more effective medical and surgical treatment for many cancers.
Related information
Cancer Incidence projections Update
Cancer in New Zealand: Trends and Projections
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Publishing information
Date of publication: June 2008
ISBN numbers: 978-0-478-31770-1 (online)
HP number: 4596
Citation: Ministry of Health. 2008. Cancer Mortality Projections: 2000-2004 Update. Wellington: Ministry of Health
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