Population Ageing and Health Spending: 50 Year ProjectionsDate of publication: December 1999
The occasional papers series is published by the Ministry of Health to foster constructive relationships, collaboration and information sharing among health sector and central agencies. The purpose of the occasional papers series is to provide authoritative information, and to foster debate on strategic health policy and health management issues through well-researched, high quality, user-friendly essays of empirical or theoretical nature. Occasional papers are published as warranted.
New Zealand ’s population continues to grow larger and to grow older: the proportion of the population who are aged 65 years or over is projected to double over the next 50 years. These population changes will have a significant impact on health spending and on economic growth, as reflected in changes to the gross domestic product (GDP).In particular, the ageing population will require more health care (as older people have greater health needs)but GDP growth will be curbed, as proportionately fewer people will be of working age. This paper examines the effect of predicted population changes, up to the year 2051,on health spending as a percentage of GDP.
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